Strategic & Emerging Risks
From false precision to real understanding
Simon works with boards and executive teams to identify, understand and respond to the risks that will shape their organisation over future years (and even decades).
Although most boards and executive teams are we versed at managing operational risk, strategic and emerging risks need to be treated different. The lack of clarity around probability and impact means emerging risks don’t always fit within classic risk management frameworks and can be easily overlooked. This has the potential to create blind spots with organisation shaping consequences.
The risk management challenge for boards
Boards are often expected to review extensive risk registers dominated by operational issues. Although important these risks can often be controlled, mitigated or effectively delegated. At the same time, emerging risks are often missed as they are yet to be identified or not sufficiently well understood. This leads to;
- Too many risks competing for the board's attention
- False confidence created by ratings and heat maps
- A focus on controlling rather than navigating risks
- Missed strategic opportunities
A different approach: identify, prioritise and decide
Strategic and emerging risks are not problems to be “managed away”. They are changes to be identified and choices to be navigated. Simon’s approach shifts the conversation away from false precision towards collective understanding and judgement.
Rather than asking boards to quantify what cannot yet be known, Simon helps leaders:
Rather than asking boards to quantify what cannot yet be known, Simon helps leaders:
- Identify emerging and strategic risks earlier
- Prioritise what really matters at an organisation-shaping level
- Decide what kind of response is required
How Simon works with boards and executive teams
I work directly with boards and executive teams (and often both together). These facilitated sessions use a combination of strategic foresight tools to collate perspectives, map key risks and enable decision-focused discussion. These sessions often surface a productive tension between the comfort of quantifying and managing risk and the far more difficult challenge of making strategic decisions in uncertainty.
The outcome of these sessions is:
The outcome of these sessions is:
- Focusing the board's attention on the few risks that truly matter Enabling productive disagreement
- Enabling productive disagreement without confrontation
- Developing a clear course of action around key risk
- Strengthening the board’s ability to make judgement when certainty isn't available
The long term impact is a board with clearer strategic intent, proactive response, and a reduced risk profile.
From the moment we mind mashed I felt the energy and ideas coming to life. Your mentorship and experience allowed the event to land for the audience and your keynote and facilitation were both awesome. Gold plated work!
Courtney Smith
Event Owner, Forge Summit
Working with Simon was a wonderful experience. He gained trust and built rapport with our leadership team very quickly and his knowledge and process had us all deeply engaged. The outcome was also very powerful in reinforcing our future direction and the possible additional actions we need to be ready to take.
James Woodyatt
Managing Director, CDK Stone
The Scenario Planning Guide is great and even for someone who’s been doing scenarios for years, it prompted some serious thinking. I just wanted to let you know how much I enjoyed the way you’ve made complex concepts accessible. I love the models and the layout. The whole book is exceptional!
Alex Hagan
Futurist
Simon thanks for your work, your sessions exceeded my expectations. These are incredibly useful structures and processes.
Tony Hallam
Director Zoos Victoria
Working with Simon is an incredibly enlightening and rewarding experience. His foresight and ability to distil complex information into an engaging story that resonates with the audience is exceptional. Every conversation with Simon takes you on a journey that has many forks in the road and it’s this skill that challenges and develops our strategic thinking. I highly recommend Simon Waller to any organisation.
Leanne Williams
CEO – My Community Library
The energy that Simon brings is infectious, and the different tools he used to get people to think strategically and understand the scenario development process meant that everyone could contribute.
Laura Jo Mellan
Director, Maribyrnong City Council
Simon did a brilliant job of finding the balance between challenging and reassuring us, enabling us to be comfortable with being uncomfortable – to rise to the task of leadership in times of high uncertainty.
Angela Savage
CEO, Public Libraries Victoria
I would happily recommend Simon if you are looking for someone who will encourage you to expand your imagination, to get you thinking on another level, to consider new ideas, to think outside the box. Simon is engaging, interactive, and challenges your way of thinking. He is professional and creative, down-to-earth, and a likeable character who will help you get to where you need to be.
Annemarie Mccabe
Chair, My Community Library
Mayor, Baw Baw Shire Council
Mayor, Baw Baw Shire Council
Some of the organisations Simon has inspired
Simon’s client base includes a range or public, private and purpose driven organisations.
Workshops
The Futurist's Toolkit
The Futurist’s Toolkit introduces the practical tools, techniques, and mindsets to help leaders prepare for what’s coming next. Drawing on nearly two decades of work as a business futurist, Simon demystifies how futurists approach uncertainty. He helps leaders strengthen strategic foresight, identify emerging opportunities, and build adaptive capacity within their organisations.
Leading In Uncertainty
Combining compelling storytelling with practical inquiry Leading in Uncertainty draws on Simon’s experience of the 2004 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race. In a race where only half the fleet made it to the finish line, the story provides deep insights into leadership and teamwork in the face of literal headwinds and a perfect storm of uncertainty.
How Better Decisions Get Made
How Better Decisions Get Made shows how leaders can make better decisions in complex, uncertain environments. It explores how sound judgement, clear process, and productive disagreement each contribute to effective decision-making. Participants gain practical approaches for counteracting bias, navigating disagreement, and making confident decisions when the way forward isn’t clear.
Choosing Tomorrow
Choosing Tomorrow is an immersive scenario workshop that helps leadership teams safely explore difficult and often divisive questions. Using the power of future scenarios, participants step into one of several possible futures to tackle complex issues like data privacy, business ethics and the impact of AI on the workplace. Along the way, they surface assumptions, build strategic awareness, and create a safe space for more informed, future-ready conversations.
Looking for a keynote instead?
Simon delivers engaging, thought-provoking keynotes on future thinking, decision-making, AI, and the human-tech relationship. His ‘practical futurism’ approach helps organisations sharpen strategic thinking and navigate uncertainty with confidence.
