- What is happening or may happen — scenario uncertainty
- Which options are available and what effects they may have — structural uncertainty
- Which outcomes are desirable — values uncertainty
When these uncertainties remain unresolved, even highly capable decision makers can struggle to make and sustain decisions. Deep Decision-Making is a set of principles and tools used to create the conditions for more constructive disagreement. It makes assumptions visible, gives participants a shared language for exploring change, and replaces unproductive argument with structured enquiry.
Participation is not an optional extra; it’s central to the method. The quality of the decision, and the commitment to act on it, are strengthened when decision makers contribute to building the understanding behind it.
What the process can deliver.
Depending on the decision and the needs of the organisation, the process produces:
- a clearly framed enquiry question and decision boundary;
- a shared map of trends and drivers of change;
- an understanding of the critical uncertainties likely to affect strategic choices;
- a set of plausible future scenarios;
- strategic options tested across those scenarios;
- transparent criteria for assessing competing options;
- measures of success and early indicators of potential failure;
- agreed adaptation points for revisiting or changing strategic direction; and
- stronger alignment between executives, stakeholders and the formal decision-making group.
Journey
A participatory journey
1.Frame the enquiry
The process begins with the sponsor. Together, we shape the enquiry question: what decision is being explored? Where is the process likely to break down? What is in scope and what is not? This may also include developing an initial list of trends and drivers of change for participants to examine, challenge and refine.
2. Build shared understanding
In the first workshop, participants explore why conventional decision-making approaches can struggle in conditions of deep uncertainty. They then map out the drivers of change, creating a stronger shared understanding of the critical uncertainties impacting the decision.
3. Bring plausible futures to life
Participants develop scenarios that represent different ways the future could plausibly unfold. A purpose-built scenario development tool helps reduce the cognitive effort involved in creating and expressing these futures. It helps transform the group’s thinking into vivid, plausible scenarios that can be explored and tested together. These scenarios are then packaged into a custom magazine called The Future Times — a distinctive, accessible format that helps engage stakeholders beyond the workshop.
4. Test strategic options
The scenarios developed in the first workshop also become a practical testing environment for the various options that have been identified. Participants can see how options perform across different futures, shifting the conversation from “Which option is best?” to “Which options remain credible when conditions change?”
5. Agree decision criteria
The decision group develops clear criteria for assessing strategic options. This makes the basis for decision-making more transparent and helps separate genuine differences in judgement from disagreement caused by unclear assumptions, competing values or individual biases. Where appropriate, I also work with the executive team to ensure options are appropriately developed and presented to the formal decision-making group.
6. Plan to adapt
The final stage considers what signs may indicate a strategy is failing, how progress will be recognised, and when the organisation should revisit or adapt its direction. This results in strategies that can evolve as the organisation learns and grows.
Outcome
The outcome
The result is a decision-making process that is:
- More informed — because different interpretations and assumptions are surfaced;
- More robust — because options are tested across plausible futures;
- More transparent — because assessment criteria are made explicit;
- More participatory — because those responsible for the decision help build the understanding behind it; and
- More adaptive — because success measures and points for change are identified in advance.
Audience
Is it the right fit?
Deep Decision-Making is highly participatory and requires a meaningful investment from the decision-making group. It’s ideally suited to high-stakes decisions that require significant investment and/or have long-term implications.
That being said, the principles and tools are also highly relevant for any decision-making group wanting to improve its decision-making dynamics.
An exploratory conversation is an opportunity to understand the decision you are facing, consider whether the approach is appropriate, and determine whether we are a good fit to work together.
